He's not losing it, he's trying to cash out. We've seen this so many times in the industry. Lyle is one of the very few people who is intellectually and socially honest enough not to do it. He will change his opinion based on new data (which is what science is supposed to be about) but that's not a very sexy strategy, nor is it amenable to blog hits or book sales. I for one, respect the heck out of him for it.